Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) and rickettsiae associated with wild boars in a rural area of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Wild boars or feral pigs are classified by the Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Resources (IBAMA) in "Category I of invasive exotic species". They cause economic losses, harm the environment, serve as hosts and reservoirs for several zoonotic disease agents, and provide a blood meal for tick species that act as vectors for zoonotic diseases. The objective of this study was to identify tick species on wild boars, assess host-seeking ticks in the related environment, and identify other potential tick hosts coexisting with wild boars on a farm located in the state of Minas Gerais, southeastern Brazil. Additionally, the study aimed to determine the presence of rickettsiae in these arthropods and assess the exposure of wild boars to rickettsiae species from the Spotted Fever Group and Rickettsia bellii through serology. A total of 3585 host-seeking ticks from three species (Amblyomma sculptum - 41.58%; Amblyomma dubitatum - 0.39% and Rhipicephalus microplus - 0.05%) were collected in the environment and A. sculptum was the most abundant species. Thirty-one wild boars were evaluated, resulting in the collection of 415 ticks, all of which were A. sculptum. Rickettsia DNA was not detected in samples of A. sculptum and R. microplus from the environment or in A. sculptum ticks from wild boars. However, all A. dubitatum ticks (n = 14) had Rickettsia bellii DNA confirmed by the species-specific PCR protocol. Out of the 31 serum samples from wild boars, 24 reacted with at least one Rickettsia antigen. Among these, seven individuals exhibited a reaction to a probable homologous antigen (PHA) of three rickettsiae species: R. rickettsii (n = 3), R. amblyommatis (n = 3) and R. rhipicephali (n = 1). Despite the high prevalence of seroreactivity, titers were low, indicating limited exposure to Rickettsia spp. Camera traps generated 874 animal records, capturing a total of 1688 individuals. At least 11 species of birds and 14 species of mammals (12 wild and two domestic) shared the environment with wild boars and potentially shared ticks with them. These findings provide baseline information for understanding the sharing of ticks and tick-borne pathogens between wild boars and other animals within the Cerrado biome. Further studies are necessary to monitor the potential and actual risk of wild boars to harbor infected ticks and their role in the transmission and maintenance cycle of Rickettsia spp.

Persistent pollution of genetic materials in a typical laboratory environment.

From the onset of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, there are concerns regarding the disease spread and environmental pollution of biohazard since studies on genetic engineering flourish and numerous genetic materials were used such as the nucleic acid test of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this work, we studied genetic material pollution in an institute during a development cycle of plasmid, one of typical genetic materials, with typical laboratory settings. The pollution source, transmission routes, and pollution levels in laboratory environment were examined. The Real-Time quantitative- Polymerase Chain Reaction results of all environmental mediums (surface, aerosol, and liquid) showed that a targeted DNA segment occurred along with routine experimental operations. Among the 79 surface and air samples collected in the genetic material operation, half of the environment samples (38 of 79) are positive for nucleic acid pollution. Persistent nucleic acid contaminations were observed in all tested laboratories and spread in the public area (hallway). The highest concentration for liquid and surface samples were 1.92 × 108 copies/uL and 5.22 × 107 copies/cm2, respectively. Significant amounts of the targeted gene (with a mean value of 74 copies/L) were detected in the indoor air of laboratories utilizing centrifuge devices, shaking tables, and cell homogenizers. Spills and improper disposal of plasmid products were primary sources of pollution. The importance of establishing designated experimental zones, employing advanced biosafety cabinets, and implementing highly efficient cleaning systems in laboratories with lower biosafety levels is underscored. SYNOPSIS: STATEMENT. Persistent environmental pollutions of genetic materials are introduced by typical experiments in laboratories with low biosafety level.

A quanta-independent approach for the assessment of strategies to reduce the risk of airborne infection.

The Wells-Riley model is extensively used for retrospective and prospective modelling of the risk of airborne transmission of infection in indoor spaces. It is also used when examining the efficacy of various removal and deactivation methods for airborne infectious aerosols in the indoor environment, which is crucial when selecting the most effective infection control technologies. The problem is that the large variation in viral load between individuals makes the Wells-Riley model output very sensitive to the input parameters and may yield a flawed prediction of risk. The absolute infection risk estimated with this model can range from nearly 0 % to 100 % depending on the viral load, even when all other factors, such as removal mechanisms and room geometry, remain unchanged. We therefore propose a novel method that removes this sensitivity to viral load. We define a quanta-independent maximum absolute before-after difference in infection risk that is independent of quanta factors like viral load, physical activity, or the dose-response relationships. The input data needed for a non-steady-state calculation are just the removal rates, room volume, and occupancy duration. Under steady-state conditions the approach provides an elegant solution that is only dependent on removal mechanisms before and after applying infection control measures. We applied this method to compare the impact of relative humidity, ventilation rate and its effectiveness, filtering efficiency, and the use of ultraviolet germicidal irradiation on the infection risk. The results demonstrate that the method provides a comprehensive understanding of the impact of infection control strategies on the risk of airborne infection, enabling rational decisions to be made regarding the most effective strategies in a specific context. The proposed method thus provides a practical tool for mitigation of airborne infection risk.

Changes in the endemic-epidemic pattern of malaria in Colombia, 1978-2021.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major global public health issue with varying epidemiologies across countries. In Colombia, it is a priority endemic-epidemic event included in the national public health policy. However, evidence demonstrating nationwide variations in the disease behavior is limited. This study aimed to analyze changes in the levels and distribution of endemic-epidemic malaria transmission in the eco-epidemiological regions of Colombia from 1978 to 1999 and 2000 to 2021. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive time-series study using official secondary data on malaria-associated morbidity and mortality in Colombia from 1978 to 2021. Temporal-spatial and population variables were analyzed, and the absolute and relative frequency measures of general and regional morbidity and mortality were estimated. RESULTS: We observed an 18% reduction in malaria endemic cases between the two study periods. The frequency and severity of the epidemic transmission of malaria varied less and were comparable across both periods. A shift was observed in the frequency of parasitic infections, with a tendency to match and increase infections by Plasmodium falciparum. The risk of malaria transmission varied significantly among the eco-epidemiological regions during both study periods. This study demonstrated a sustained decrease of 78% in malarial mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Although the endemic components of malaria decreased slightly between the two study periods, the epidemic pattern persisted. There were significant variations in the risk of transmission across the different eco-epidemiological regions. These findings underscore the importance of targeted public health interventions in reducing malarial morbidity and mortality rates in Colombia.

Malaria in a vulnerable population living in quilombo remnant communities in the Brazilian Amazon: a cross-sectional study from 2005-2020.

Quilombo remnant communities are areas officially recognized by the Brazilian government as historical communities founded by formerly enslaved individuals. These communities are mostly located in the endemic areas of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. We retrospectively described the prevalence of malaria among individuals living in 32 recognized quilombo remnant communities in the Baiao and Oriximina municipalities located in the Para State. The number of malaria cases and the Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) recorded by the Brazilian malaria surveillance system (SIVEP-Malaria) from January 2005 to December 2020 were analyzed. We found that all communities registered at least one case over the 16-year period, the most frequent parasitic species being Plasmodium vivax (76.1%). During this period, 0.44% (4,470/1,008,714) of the malaria cases registered in Para State were reported in these quilombo remnant communities, with frequencies of 10.9% (856/7,859) in Baiao municipality and 39.1% (3,614/9,238) in Oriximina municipality, showing that individuals living in these rural communities are exposed to malaria. These data indicate that effective surveillance requires improved measures to identify malaria transmission among vulnerable populations living in quilombo remnant communities in the Brazilian Amazon.

A fractional perspective on the transmission dynamics of a parasitic infection, considering the impact of both strong and weak immunity.

Infectious disease cryptosporidiosis is caused by the cryptosporidium parasite, a type of parasitic organism. It is spread through the ingestion of contaminated water, food, or fecal matter from infected animals or humans. The control becomes difficult because the parasite may remain in the environment for a long period. In this work, we constructed an epidemic model for the infection of cryptosporidiosis in a fractional framework with strong and weak immunity concepts. In our analysis, we utilize the well-known next-generation matrix technique to evaluate the reproduction number of the recommended model, indicated by [Formula: see text]. As [Formula: see text], our results show that the disease-free steady-state is locally asymptotically stable; in other cases, it becomes unstable. Our emphasis is on the dynamical behavior and the qualitative analysis of cryptosporidiosis. Moreover, the fixed point theorem of Schaefer and Banach has been utilized to investigate the existence and uniqueness of the solution. We identify suitable conditions for the Ulam-Hyers stability of the proposed model of the parasitic infection. The impact of the determinants on the sickness caused by cryptosporidiosis is highlighted by the examination of the solution pathways using a novel numerical technique. Numerical investigation is conducted on the solution pathways of the system while varying various input factors. Policymakers and health officials are informed of the crucial factors pertaining to the infection system to aid in its control.

Overlapping Streptococcus pyogenes and Streptococcus dysgalactiae subspecies equisimilis household transmission and mobile genetic element exchange.

Streptococcus dysgalactiae subspecies equisimilis (SDSE) and Streptococcus pyogenes share skin and throat niches with extensive genomic homology and horizontal gene transfer (HGT) possibly underlying shared disease phenotypes. It is unknown if cross-species transmission interaction occurs. Here, we conduct a genomic analysis of a longitudinal household survey in remote Australian First Nations communities for patterns of cross-species transmission interaction and HGT. Collected from 4547 person-consultations, we analyse 294 SDSE and 315 S. pyogenes genomes. We find SDSE and S. pyogenes transmission intersects extensively among households and show that patterns of co-occurrence and transmission links are consistent with independent transmission without inter-species interference. We identify at least one of three near-identical cross-species mobile genetic elements (MGEs) carrying antimicrobial resistance or streptodornase virulence genes in 55 (19%) SDSE and 23 (7%) S. pyogenes isolates. These findings demonstrate co-circulation of both pathogens and HGT in communities with a high burden of streptococcal disease, supporting a need to integrate SDSE and S. pyogenes surveillance and control efforts.

Multiple factors affecting Ixodes ricinus ticks and associated pathogens in European temperate ecosystems (northeastern France).

In Europe, the main vector of tick-borne zoonoses is Ixodes ricinus, which has three life stages. During their development cycle, ticks take three separate blood meals from a wide variety of vertebrate hosts, during which they can acquire and transmit human pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis. In this study conducted in Northeastern France, we studied the importance of soil type, land use, forest stand type, and temporal dynamics on the abundance of ticks and their associated pathogens. Negative binomial regression modeling of the results indicated that limestone-based soils were more favorable to ticks than sandstone-based soils. The highest tick abundance was observed in forests, particularly among coniferous and mixed stands. We identified an effect of habitat time dynamics in forests and in wetlands: recent forests and current wetlands supported more ticks than stable forests and former wetlands, respectively. We observed a close association between tick abundance and the abundance of Cervidae, Leporidae, and birds. The tick-borne pathogens responsible for Lyme borreliosis, anaplasmosis, and hard tick relapsing fever showed specific habitat preferences and associations with specific animal families. Machine learning algorithms identified soil related variables as the best predictors of tick and pathogen abundance.

Soil-transmitted helminths and associated factors among pregnant women in Doreni district, Oromia region, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) refers to a set of parasitic illnesses caused by nematode worms and spread to people through faeces-contaminated soil. It is highly prevalent in low- and middle-income countries due to a lack of environmental sanitation and personal hygiene. Pregnant women are among the risk groups for infection by soil-transmitted helminths. Former studies of the disease burden among pregnant women in Ethiopia didn't indicate the intensity of parasitic infection. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and associated factors of soil-transmitted helminths among pregnant women. METHODS: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 416 randomly selected pregnant women. The data were collected using a structured interview-administered questionnaire and a laboratory test. The Kato-Katz technique was used to diagnose soil-transmitted helminthiasis and determine the intensity of the infection. The collected data were entered into Epi-Data version 4.6 and exported to SPSS version 25 for analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of soil-transmitted helminths at a p-value < 0.05. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths among pregnant women was 30%. (95%, CI: 26-34%). Living in a rural area (AOR = 3.35; 95% CI = 1.83-6.13), drinking from an unprotected water source (AOR = 2.52; 95% CI = 1.45-4.37), not washing one's hand after the toilet (AOR = 2.75; 95% CI = 1.55-4.88), lacking health information (AOR = 1.70; 95% CI = 1.01-2.85), working as a daily labourer (AOR = 2.88; 95% CI = 1.01-8.20), and walking barefoot (AOR = 4.00; 95% CI = 2.29-7.00) were significantly associated with the presence of soil-transmitted helminths among pregnant women. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of STH was significantly moderate in the study area, where pregnant women were mostly affected by ascariasis and hookworms. Living in a rural area, being a daily labourer, walking barefoot, not washing hands after the toilet, drinking from an unprotected water source, and lacking health information were the determining factors. Interventions including health education, the expansion of pure drinking water sources, the promotion of personal hygiene, and the wearing of shoes are recommended to reduce the burden of soil-transmitted helminths in the study area.

Influence of language barrier and cultural background in hepatitis B disease knowledge in a Chinese community of Spain.

Introduction: Hepatitis B infection (HBV) is prevalent in China. Due to language barriers and cultural differences, it is not always straightforward to evaluate disease knowledge in liver clinics. We aimed to assess the awareness on HBV and its mechanisms of transmission in HBV-infected Chinese patients and their household contacts. Methods: HBV-infected Chinese patients and their contacts were interviewed by a native Chinese nurse regarding their knowledge on HBV transmission mechanisms, use of preventive measures and vaccination status. Non-Chinese HBV-infected patients and their household contacts served as a control group. Results: In total 182 patients and 398 contacts participated with 85 (47%) patients and 240 (60%) contacts being from China. Language barrier was reported in 80% of Chinese patients and 44% of their contacts. Knowledge on parenteral and sexual HBV transmission was high in all patients (~90%) but Chinese were more aware of vertical transmission than controls (94% vs. 68%; p < 0.01). Regarding the use of preventive measures, Chinese patients were more forewarned in their use to avoid parenteral transmission (93% vs. 74%, p < 0.01). When assessing household contacts, Chinese used preventive measures more frequently than controls for parenteral and sexual transmission (79% vs. 65 and 81% vs. 48%, p < 0.05). Vaccination coverage was slightly lower in Chinese contacts compared to controls (78% vs. 86%, p = 0.05). Conclusion: Despite relevant language barriers, Chinese patients are well informed on the mechanisms of HBV transmission. Cultural differences may explain a higher use of preventive measures among the Chinese population. HBV vaccination of household contacts should be reinforced in both groups.

Toward the elimination of hepatitis B: networking to promote the prevention of vertical transmission of hepatitis B virus through population-based interventions and multidisciplinary groups in Africa.

The WHO African Region had 81 million people with chronic hepatitis B in 2019, which remains a silent killer. Hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis delta virus (HDV), and HIV can be transmitted from the mother to child. If the HBV infection is acquired at infancy, it may lead to chronic hepatitis B in 90% of the cases. WHO reports that 6.4 million children under 5 years live with chronic hepatitis B infection worldwide. The prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HBV is therefore critical in the global elimination strategy of viral hepatitis as we take lessons from PMTCT of HIV programs in Africa. We sought to create a network of multidisciplinary professional and civil society volunteers with the vision to promote cost-effective, country-driven initiatives to prevent the MTCT of HBV in Africa. In 2018, the Mother-Infant Cohort Hepatitis B Network (MICHep B Network) with members from Cameroon, Zimbabwe, and the United Kingdom and later from Chad, Gabon, and Central African Republic was created. The long-term objectives of the network are to organize capacity-building and networking workshops, create awareness among pregnant women, their partners, and the community, promote the operational research on MTCT of HBV, and extend the network activities to other African countries. The Network organized in Cameroon, two "Knowledge, Attitude and Practice" (KAP) surveys, one in-depth interview of 45 health care workers which revealed a high acceptability of the hepatitis B vaccine by families, two in-person workshops in 2018 and 2019, and one virtual in 2021 with over 190 participants, as well as two workshops on grant writing, bioethics, and biostatistics of 30 postgraduate students. Two HBV seroprevalence studies in pregnant women were conducted in Cameroon and Zimbabwe, in which a prevalence of 5.8% and 2.7%, respectively, was reported. The results and recommendations from the MICHep B Network activities could be implemented in countries of the MICHep B Network and beyond, with the goal of providing free birth dose vaccine against hepatitis B in Africa.

A Pfs48/45-based vaccine to block Plasmodium falciparum transmission: phase 1, open-label, clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The stalling global progress in malaria control highlights the need for novel tools for malaria elimination, including transmission-blocking vaccines. Transmission-blocking vaccines aim to induce human antibodies that block parasite development in the mosquito and mosquitoes becoming infectious. The Pfs48/45 protein is a leading Plasmodium falciparum transmission-blocking vaccine candidate. The R0.6C fusion protein, consisting of Pfs48/45 domain 3 (6C) and the N-terminal region of P. falciparum glutamate-rich protein (R0), has previously been produced in Lactococcus lactis and elicited functional antibodies in rodents. Here, we assess the safety and transmission-reducing efficacy of R0.6C adsorbed to aluminium hydroxide with and without Matrix-M™ adjuvant in humans. METHODS: In this first-in-human, open-label clinical trial, malaria-naïve adults, aged 18-55 years, were recruited at the Radboudumc in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Participants received four intramuscular vaccinations on days 0, 28, 56 and 168 with either 30 µg or 100 µg of R0.6C and were randomised for the allocation of one of the two different adjuvant combinations: aluminium hydroxide alone, or aluminium hydroxide combined with Matrix-M1™ adjuvant. Adverse events were recorded from inclusion until 84 days after the fourth vaccination. Anti-R0.6C and anti-6C IgG titres were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Transmission-reducing activity of participants' serum and purified vaccine-specific immunoglobulin G was assessed by standard membrane feeding assays using laboratory-reared Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes and cultured P. falciparum gametocytes. RESULTS: Thirty-one participants completed four vaccinations and were included in the analysis. Administration of all doses was safe and well-tolerated, with one related grade 3 adverse event (transient fever) and no serious adverse events occurring. Anti-R0.6C and anti-6C IgG titres were similar between the 30 and 100 µg R0.6C arms, but higher in Matrix-M1™ arms. Neat participant sera did not induce significant transmission-reducing activity in mosquito feeding experiments, but concentrated vaccine-specific IgGs purified from sera collected two weeks after the fourth vaccination achieved up to 99% transmission-reducing activity. CONCLUSIONS: R0.6C/aluminium hydroxide with or without Matrix-M1™ is safe, immunogenic and induces functional Pfs48/45-specific transmission-blocking antibodies, albeit at insufficient serum concentrations to result in transmission reduction by neat serum. Future work should focus on identifying alternative vaccine formulations or regimens that enhance functional antibody responses. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT04862416.

DeepDynaForecast: Phylogenetic-informed graph deep learning for epidemic transmission dynamic prediction.

In the midst of an outbreak or sustained epidemic, reliable prediction of transmission risks and patterns of spread is critical to inform public health programs. Projections of transmission growth or decline among specific risk groups can aid in optimizing interventions, particularly when resources are limited. Phylogenetic trees have been widely used in the detection of transmission chains and high-risk populations. Moreover, tree topology and the incorporation of population parameters (phylodynamics) can be useful in reconstructing the evolutionary dynamics of an epidemic across space and time among individuals. We now demonstrate the utility of phylodynamic trees for transmission modeling and forecasting, developing a phylogeny-based deep learning system, referred to as DeepDynaForecast. Our approach leverages a primal-dual graph learning structure with shortcut multi-layer aggregation, which is suited for the early identification and prediction of transmission dynamics in emerging high-risk groups. We demonstrate the accuracy of DeepDynaForecast using simulated outbreak data and the utility of the learned model using empirical, large-scale data from the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic in Florida between 2012 and 2020. Our framework is available as open-source software (MIT license) at github.com/lab-smile/DeepDynaForcast.

Association of ABO, Rh-D and Kell blood groups with transfusion transmitted infections among blood donors from the Asir Region, Saudi Arabia: A retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) and ABO, Rh-D, and Kell blood systems among blood donors. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 10,095 donors who visited the Blood Bank at Asir Hospital, Abha, Saudi Arabia. Data including demographic information, ABO, Rh-D, and Kell blood groups, and serological and molecular test results of TTIs (the TTIs were obtained from each donor's records). Chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests were employed to establish possible associations between blood groups and TTIs. RESULTS: The prevalence rate of TTIs among donors was 6.3%, with HBcAb (70%) being the most prevalent biomarker among positive donors. Donors with the O blood group were at a higher risk of contracting TTIs. Significant associations were observed between HIV and blood group A (χ2=6.30, p=0.01), HBsAg and group AB (χ2=17.3193, p=0.00003), malaria and group A (χ2=5.0567, p=0.02), and HBV-DNA and group AB (χ2=12.3163, p=0.0004). Also, Kell blood group was significantly associated with HIV (χ2=14.5, p=0.0001), HBcAb (χ2=78.51, p<0.0001), and syphilis (χ2=25.225, p<0.00001). CONCLUSION: ABO and Kell blood groups are associated with TTI markers. These findings highlight the need for improved strategies and approaches in screening and managing blood donations to minimize the risk of TTIs.

BCG vaccination reduces bovine tuberculosis transmission, improving prospects for elimination.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is a routinely used vaccine for protecting children against Mycobacterium tuberculosis that comprises attenuated Mycobacterium bovis. BCG can also be used to protect livestock against M. bovis; however, its effectiveness has not been quantified for this use. We performed a natural transmission experiment to directly estimate the rate of transmission to and from vaccinated and unvaccinated calves over a 1-year exposure period. The results show a higher indirect efficacy of BCG to reduce transmission from vaccinated animals that subsequently become infected [74%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 46 to 98%] compared with direct protection against infection (58%; 95% CrI: 34 to 73%) and an estimated total efficacy of 89% (95% CrI: 74 to 96%). A mechanistic transmission model of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spread within the Ethiopian dairy sector was developed and showed how the prospects for elimination may be enabled by routine BCG vaccination of cattle.

Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic.

The World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022. To investigate global mpox transmission and population-level changes associated with controlling spread, we built phylogeographic and phylodynamic models to analyze MPXV genomes from five global regions together with air traffic and epidemiological data. Our models reveal community transmission prior to detection, changes in case reporting throughout the epidemic, and a large degree of transmission heterogeneity. We find that viral introductions played a limited role in prolonging spread after initial dissemination, suggesting that travel bans would have had only a minor impact. We find that mpox transmission in North America began declining before more than 10% of high-risk individuals in the USA had vaccine-induced immunity. Our findings highlight the importance of broader routine specimen screening surveillance for emerging infectious diseases and of joint integration of genomic and epidemiological information for early outbreak control.

Community Voices and Whole-Genome Sequencing for Tuberculosis: Storytelling and the Importance of Listening.

One of the primary public health functions of a tuberculosis (TB) program is to arrest the spread of infection. Traditionally, TB programs have relied on epidemiological information, gathered through contact tracing, to infer that transmission has occurred between people. The ability of drawing such inferences is extensively context dependent. Where epidemiological information has been strong, such as 2 cases of TB occurring sequentially within a single household, confidence in such inferences is high; conversely, public health authorities have been less certain about the significance of TB cases merely occurring in the same wider social group or geographic area. Many current laboratory tests for TB used globally may be sufficient to confirm a diagnosis and guide appropriate therapy but still be insufficiently precise for distinguishing two strains reliably. In short, drawing inferences regarding a chain of transmissions has always been as much art as science.